Thursday, December 3, 2015

NFL PICKS WEEK 13 THURSDAY

PostGame - Miracle at Motown!

I honestly believe that luck is progressive. It makes sense mathematically. You keep pulling that handle - the slot gets full and eventually spits out coins. If you chase bets in a casino - you can lose your house that way too - but you know what I mean. Knowing we were due for a little "good luck" truly was a big part of why I bet tonight. It was a good match up for GB - but in addition - we have had so much bad luck we really were due for a little good.

I could not have imagined, in my wildest dreams, how much luck it would take for us to win tonight. It's all part of history now. Framing that ticket.
 
Yeah that just Happened....
 
(2nd Half) - Packers Scoreless. (DET 20 -0)
(5:48 3rd Quarter) GB recovers own fumble in End Zone. (DET 20-7)
(4:06 3rd Quarter) Rodgers to Adams end zone TD! (DET 20-14)
(7:07 4th Quarter) Lions FG - Ouch! This is Over. (DET 23-14)
(3:04 4th Quarter) 3rd /11 - Rodgers forced out of Pocket runs 20yds TD! (DET 23-21)

(0:06 4th quarter)
Keep in mind at this point - 6 Seconds Left - We Have GB -2.5 / Over 47
So, GB can win with a FG but not cover and would Push the Over (47) = We Lose.

(0:06 4th quarter) GB from their own 21 
Aaron Rodgers short pass to Jones
Jones tosses it back to Rodgers, he turns and throws it back to Aaron Rodgers 
Rodger pulled down - Game Over - Wait - "We got a flag! Facemask called on DET.
(It was a bad call - Lions Defender grazed but never pulled on Facemask - not 15 yds
GB gets the 15 yd penalty - moves the ball to the GB 40. 
Fortunately for us out of FG range.

(Last Play of the Game - for real this time)
Rodgers from shotgun - rolls left - sacked - no - gets away - rolls right
Sets up to throw - launches it high and deep 70 yards! -
Richard Rodgers backs into end zone - leaps - catches it - TD!
The packers go nuts - clipboards flying - arms raised - Packers Win! 
(Final) GB 27-23 
GB -2.5 BY 4 OVER 47 (50)

This has to be a first:

WR- Richard Rodgers to QB - Aaron Rodgers 
Next Play
QB -Aaron Rodgers to WR - Richard Rodgers  
 
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@RickOnTheStrip

PreGame _________________

Bank Bet
GB -2.5 @DET (47) Over
Projected GB 34 -21 (55)

I did not plan on betting this game at all. However, the line dropped to less than a FG and GB does look really good in the Match Up - as does the Over. The bank has $41 Spare change so I went for it. The knock with this game is that GB is 31st in Schedule Strength, but DET is 21st. They don't win Off Line - but neither does DETPackers do not win Red Zone Def - But neither does DET - thus the Over. GB does win Pass Off Big!

If you look at Overall Off vs Def in the middle of the Match Up (below) - GB Blue on both Sides and DET Red on both. I know I swore off parlays - But - We're not risking much and stand to make a nice gain if we hit. I do think Green Bay has something to Prove tonight after losing to the Lions at home. Hard to beat a team twice in the same year. Especially one that has had your number for a decade. Go Packers! Run it up guys - just win by 3 Pack.

Head to Head



Bank Receipt

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