SF - GB Live Play by Play continued in Post Above.
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Sat,SD-CIN: Live Play by Play Moved to Bottom this Post
Full Matchups with Picks and Notes are Live Now:
http://www.happycapper.com/WK18NFLGAMES.html
Look at Last Weeks Results to get the Most out of this Weeks Match Up Stats.
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk172013.html
Refresh this Post for Updates
I threw out last weeks stats, due to some teams sitting players. So, using Week 16 stats, I was able to Post Early. Only one important Injury Reports (Mainly LB Hali for KC) - Saturday?
Updated: 1/5/2014. 7:32 AM (PST)
Final Picks_______________________
Sun:1:40
SF -3 @ GB (System Pick SF by 3) Dropped - (Now@-2.5)
(U) 7% Rain / 4 Degrees / WindChill (-15) / Wind 12
SF: CBs Rodgers / Wright - Q
GB: None
System Called CIN Cover By -7
Also Called the Under (See Link Above)
Sun:1:05
(WIN)SD +7 @ CIN (Tie 19-19) (Now! @ +7) (+6.5) (+7)
(U) 99% Rain / 40 / Wind - 6
SD: WR Royal-Q - Expected to Play.
CIN: CB Newman-(Out)
Saturday___________________________
System Called IND cover by -6.7 (Link Above)
Sat: 1:35
(WIN) KC +2.5 @ IND
(KC by 5) (Now! @ +2.5) (+2) (+1.5) Side Change KC (-1.5)
Dome
KC: LB Hali-Prob
IND: NT Franklin-Full Practice
System Called PHI cover by -1 (Link Above)
Also Projected Under Total (54.5) See DIF (Link Above)
Sat: 5:10
(OFF) PHI -2.5 @ NO (-3)
Clear / 21 / Wind - 5-7
NO: RB Thomas-OUT
PHI: NONE
Study Each Matchup (links Above) for Pros and Cons Before you Pull the Trigger.
There are Factors that suggest Each game could go the other way.
See A Closer Look (Below)
Over Unders: (OFF)
None of this week games have Double Negatives or Positives in the Over Under Stats. (See Results Link Below). The only Total disparities point to Unders in the PHI/NO and CIN/SD Games. But! As we learned last week - do not bet the Under with a #1 Offense (CIN) in the Game. Chargers also avg close to 30 last 4. The same rule applies to games featuring Drew Brees. However, if you think Drew chokes in the cold - that combined with the # 2 Saints defense - could pull off a Surprise Under - High Total (54). Bare in mind that Foles, McCoy and Jackson would have to choke too. PHI/DET scored 54 in 2nd half in PHI in the Snow.
So, Risky Proposition.
WildCard Round
(Click to Enlarge)
Low Ranks and Weak Defenses make IND and GB seem Least Likely to Advance.
Closer Look: Eagles vs Saints
Coaching
Cold Brees
Deceiving Stats.
As you can see from the Chart above - SF Dominates the Offensive Line and Rush offense.
I made a lot of money betting Golf 2 years ago. Last year decent with all the stats. But two years ago - I just watched every Tourney and then would try to guess the Headline after the following weeks tourney. "Tiger Wins" or "Michelson's back! Just deductive reasoning. Not Psychic Friends Network. Can you Picture this Headline? "Rodgers Magic Keeps Packers Alive!
SD Live:
Dalton passes a little off. SD running well. Inside CIN 20.
Nice Drive. Woodhead Runs it in. TD
7-0 SD
I Like Woodhead. He Reminds me of Mike Meyers:
CIN 3 and Out. SD Defense always seems to play better than Stats.
Penalty takes SD back to own 5.
SD only avg 30 yds Penalties per game. CIN 55.
Let's see how Rivers handles pressure. Should just let Mathews Run.OK, Mathews for 5 and 3. 3rd and 2.
Rivers misses wide open Allen. Horrible throw. PUnt
CIN at 40 - Good FPos.
SD cant afford too many 3 and out. CIN will score.
CIN Driving to 30. SD Def LIne playing Tough.
But, Screen to Bernard to 20. LB may be weakness
Bernard to 9, Bernard again for 1st, drives to 4
Line stuffs Ellis.
Dalton blindisde sack - But no - gets it away to Gresham. TD
7-7
SD 4th and 1 on own 35. Punt - but didn't give away too much Fpos to CIN. That will be important, along with limiting 3 and outs.
They really need to get to the 40 at least though - to prevent Bengals scoring.
D LIne pressuring Dalton. Holding big 10 yard help.
SD has 5th DL and 3rd Rush Off. It Shows.
As usual - the System much better at predicting Totals than I am. Looks like Under.
Dalton Deep Ball to Jones to 16. (2:00 2nd)
Short pass to Bernard to 3. Fumble SD Ball. Under Review but had possession was a fumble.
What's this crap about not reversing "Bang Bang" or quick plays. Isn't that the purpose of slow motion instant replay? Refs got it Right. SD Ball on own 11 1:47 left 2nd
Holding again in Red Zone. on SD 6 now. Let's see how Rivers does.
Need a 1st. Thinking sweep left. They went left - but no lead blocker - so not really a sweep.
3rd and 11. Woodhead stuffed at 11. Need a good punt
Great Punt! Great Coverage. CIN on 30
Dalton to Gree. To Sanu to SD 40. To Gresham to 30 (dropped ball OOB) Review)
That was a catch. had possession, made football move then out of bounds. .
CIN on 30 - 2 seconds left 2nd
10-7 CIN (HT)
Phill Sims is an idiot. Don't Open it up! Stick with Game plan and be patient. Run will set up a few long pass plays. Otherwise they will key on Rivers and sack his ass off.
Big 3rd and 4 at 50 for CIN Dalton tries to run for it. Stopped.
Big series for SD now, Need a solid drive - not a quick score. If they go for Big plays right away 3 and out is likely. Long drive keeps it away from CIN.
Good Rivers took what they gave him,. Nice gain.
1st Down Mathews Niiice. 6 yds to Gates. Woodhead Run manageable 3rd and 1
Allen to the 50. The Big Play will open up if they keep this up.
Corners and Safeties will start inches forward. They will get behind them eventually.
3rd and 5. Rivers short pass for 1st to Green. Nicely done.
Play action - Pass to Royal to 5!
Pass high to left corner. Green goes up for it. TD!
10-14 SD
Dalton Runs for it. Fumbles as he hits ground. Not touched SD Ball at 50
Woodhead and Mathews grinding away on the ground to the 30.
Allen Deep Out - comes back for ball. 1st on CIN 13. Woodhead powers to the 10. Keep Running it! Woodhead to the 6. 3rd and 6. Almost coverage sack. Throws it away. FG
10-17 SD
Need a TD there to pull away a little. But good Drive and keeping Ball away from Dalton. Defense had a chance to rest. Another stop will be Huge for SD.
Dalton Pressured. Pick! 1st and Goal SD.
Delay of Game. Rivers screaming. Keep your cool man!
1st and Goal from 10. NO Worries - be patient!
throws it away deep corner - was open underneath! Short passes and run it in!
Woodhead to 2. 3rd and Goal
Slow stretch play right - Read that all the way. Lousy play call. Boot right would have scored.
FG
20-10 SD 4th.
Two turnovers - 6 Points. Nice Drives but Horrible in Red Zone. SD only 50% in RZ coming in.
CIN allows 67%. Bengals 100% in RZ coming in. Could have put this way. Letting Bengals hang around. Dangerous.
SD Def Line on Fire! But Corners give up 1st again. Bernard stuffed by D Line again!
Beat the other corner now for another 1st.
Left corner, Right corner. now left again for another first.
Shuffle Pass to Bernard over middle for 15
LBs and CBs need to step up need a Pick or turnover
There you GO! Ingram cuts off the short out Pick! + 15 yd penalty!
SD runs. 3 and 1. FB stuffed. Easy QB sneak. Gotta punt. Could have put them away. Going on 4th Delay of Game. Really guys?
3 Turnovers - 6 Points. Pathetic!
Bengals drive. SD Holds on 4th.
SD Ball 4:04 4th
Final SD 27-10
Sorry - Had to go cash my Ticket:
KC +1.5 / SD +7 $50 to Pay $175
and hedge my big Bet ending with Niner game.
$100 to Pay $1350 if SF Covers -3
$358 if GB Covers +3
3-0 Baby!
NO/PHI Live:
Poor Saints offense - Really allowed PHI back in game. Saints defense was containing them.
Brees complete for 17. But, ball floating a little.
Sproles for 13 to 45
Brees pass to right sideline - low and behind but complete
Brees pas deflected 3rd down
Brees tackled at 26 :23 in 4th
FG
7-6 PHI (HT)
Looks like Brees is having trouble finding a throwing lane. Trying to throw Over Def linemen. Unable to step into throw or bring it down. I think that is effecting him more than the cold.
Also bad Play calling. 7 straight passes., All out of shotgun. Need to bring the run back in with Sproles. Otherwise, they will just keep pressuring him. Less shotgun, more Runs, quick slants, and screens to combat Blitz. Only down by 1 - no need to go for long passes so often. Run will also keep Foles off the field
3rd Qtr:
Big stop for NO. Sack. PHI punts from 10
Saints start at 48
Ingram for 5 - good start
Short hitch for 1st
Run Ingram for 10
Run for 6. Hold 1st, 20.
Brees rolls to hits Moore in the stride over middle. TD!
13-7 NO
That's right! Get out of that backfield and stay vertical.
Wow, Foles to Cooper for 20 yd gain easy - drops it. PHI Punt from 20
3rd and 2 - slant for 1st. But Hold. Brees pressured again. Looks like cutting the left tackle and playing a Rookie - no so smart by Peyton.
Brees Deep out for 20. 1st!
Brees escapes pressure. Passes to PHI 27.
Ingram for 10
Sproles 3 yd pass - drags them for 9
Ingram Run - 1st and Goal
Just keep Running it!
Ingram for 9. TD!
20- 7 NO
PHI Driving. Foles to Avant. Lewis Racks him. Incomplete. Lewis Down!
Lewis responsible for covering Jackson.
Foles pressured. Rolling right near sideline. Long pass to Jackson on sideline.
3rd and Goal. 4th Down.
McCoy run TD!
20-14 NO :22 3rd
Brees sits in pocket. Tryng to go deep. Throws it away.
7 yd Run Ingram. Penalty 3 and Out
Penalties Killing Saints
PHI going after Lewis Replacement hard. 1TD off him already
PHI 3rd and 6 from NO 15.
Saints hold!
PHI FG
20-14 NO 11 minutes 4th
Lewis arguing to come back in.
Saints ball
Brees to Meachem to PHI 22!
Run for 5
3rd and 4
Brees waits for play to develop. Throws it away. Way too long a play for 4 yds.
2 runs would have given them a 1st and probably a TD.
23-17 NO 7:59 4th
PHI driving. 1st at Saints 42
Long pass to Jackson. PI 1st and Goal
Foles to TE TD!
24-23 PHI 4:54 4th
Sproles takes Kickoff turns the corner to 35. Horse Collar. 1st Down on 50!
Robinson for 13!
Quick Pass to Colston. 3rd and 2 PHI 32.
Brees keeps it. 1st down! on PHI 25
5yd gain
Robinson Run. 3rd and inches
Brees to 9 for 1st!
:45 4th
FG Good!
Final 26-24 Saints
For all of you who bet the original System Pick. Congrats!
Off wasn't a bad call Either
System Called the NO Cover
Sorry Everyone. Didn't realize some text was coming out black. Blogger word processor is horrible. Won't happen again.
Live:
24-7 KC
Mike Mayock is such a Tool. Shot his mouth off about colts. "Blah,Blah,Blah, My Money's on Colts." Now Squirming and trying to explain himself live on air. LOL.
KC hold IND to FG. 24-10
Jamaal Charles 11 minutes into 1st - Helmet to turf. Concussion . Out for Game.
Predicted KC would dominate time of Possession with Run, With Charles out - Alex Smith has stepped up. Passing and running out of pocket. He is on Fire! Miles Davis finishes long drive with 7 yard run. 31-10 KC
Mayock going on and on about how great Luck is right now. Not really calling the game - just profusely kissing Shrek's ass. I'm embarrassed for him. Long pass to Hilton - wide open. Hilton has shredded the KC Defense several times. Only Houston and Hali keeping Colts in check. Sack! Next play Pick!
Maybe Mayock will shut up now!
Halftime
They call Mayock out about his predicting Colts win. He actually lies about saying how good KC is up front. Oooh Mike.. Do Shut up.
Luck throws 7 yd out route. CB Abdula cuts off the route. Pick #2 for Luck!
That should shut mayock up.
3rd and 6 on IND 15. Smith avoids trouble, rolls right, hits RB Davis on swing pass TD KC!
38-10 KC
Luck to Hilton, Pass to Brown, Deep ball to Rodgers. Brown runs it in for TD.
38-17 KC
Nice drive KC to own 45. Smith scrambling in backfield, Rolls left. Mathis from his blindside. Swats ball loose. Colts Recover on KC 40
Luck to Hilton to 5 yd line. Swing pass right to Brown. TD!
38-24 KC
Colts crossing routes vs KC man coverage leaving Receivers wide open.
Remember that for next game if KC holds on to win. If they play a good Off line that can handle Houston and Hali - with good QB - could spell trouble for KC secondary.
KC: WR Avery Out! Concussion. DB Flowers Out! Concussion.
RB Charles Out! Concussion.
Colts kick off. KC return man down on field after hard hit.
Smith perfect slant pass for first. Knocked out of WR hands by IND DB. 4th Down KC.
Luck throws behind Receiver. Abdula takes it away from him. Pick #3 Luck #2 Abdula!
KC drive from IND 30 - not eevn 1 1st down. FG
Smith taking 7 step drops vs heavy pass rush is insane. Playing call supect. very few verticle plays. all swings and sweeps. Completely infective.
41-24 KC
Luck to Brazil deep. Pass to Fleener TD!
41-31 KC
Smith bootleg for 1st. Nice drive to 50. WR Grey wide out for TD - Smith over throws him by 7 yards. Missed huge opportunity to put it away. 3rd and 8 - Smith running around backfield. Got to get vertical and release sooner. 4th down Punt.
Colts 3rd and 10 from own 10 yd line. Hoge stop for KC if they hold. KC gives up 1st
Colts drive to KC 10. 2 and Goal. RB drops handoff. Luck picks it up and reaches over for TD.
41-38 KC
KC driving. RB Davis down - injured!
Huge 3rd and 5 on own 40. Smith pass 1st down! Gray in for Davis - 2 yd gain.
Another lateral pass for 1 yd. 3rd and 7
Smith to Jenkins for 20 yds!
KC takes 2 time outs in 4 plays to avoid delays of game.
Another lateral sweep. 2nd and 6
Swing again - loss of 4!
KC: RB Davis Out! Concussion.
3rd and 11 6 minute left Pass complete 4 yds short of 1st! Really? FG
44-38 KC
Long pass Hilton TD!
44-45 IND
Just realized - if we lose by 2 we Cover. Lets hope!
Can smith win this with his whole offense out?
Smith to Bowe to 45!
Smith to Bowe to IND 45! 3:19 4th
Gray to the 40
Mathis hurries Smith - Grounding - huge penalty!
KC on IND 42, 4th and 11 2 minute warning!
Smith to Bowe along right Sideline.
DB pushes him toward sideline before ball arrives.
Caught Out of Bounds. IND Ball.
SHOULD BE OBVIOUS PASS INTERFERENCE!
Mayock compliments DB for pushing. Not a word about a penalty.
Really guys?
Colts take a knee.
Final 45-44 IND
Gotta feel for smith and Chiefs. He played a great first half. Never seen that many stars knocked out on a team in one game. Lousy play calling though.
Colts allowed very few yards after catch. Remember that next week.
We win! KC +2.5
Closer Look: Chief @ Colts
At first glance, the Colts appear to have blown out
KC 2 weeks ago. A closer look reveals an inept INDY offense that scored only 2
TDs and 3 Field Goals off of 3 Turnovers.
Both TDs were scored by Running back Donald Brown.
A 33 yd pass and 51 yd run. Brown has filled the void nicely for under performing
Richardson.
However, neither Houston or Hali were 100% for that
game*. They should pressure Andrew (Shrek) Luck. The Chiefs also fell behind
early in that game abandoning their bread and butter run game.
I predict a very different outcome this week as the
#4 KC Offense visits the 27th Ranked Colts Defense. The Chiefs were 7-1 vs the Spread on the Road this season.
(KC by 5). *Houston is Full. Hali is Questionable, but just needs swelling to go down on his knee. The afternoon start on Sat should help. Odds are dropping on Colts which leads me to believe he will play.
(KC by 5). *Houston is Full. Hali is Questionable, but just needs swelling to go down on his knee. The afternoon start on Sat should help. Odds are dropping on Colts which leads me to believe he will play.
Closer Look: Eagles vs Saints
Coaching
The Saints are taking a page from the Bill Walsh Playbook this week. I remember when the 49ers were about to play Chicago for the NFC Championship. Ditka the disciplinarian was working his guys hard. Walsh gave Montana and the crew a day off in the Jacuzzi. SF beat Chicago that year.
The Saints are Not taking a day off. They are very aware of the 3 game Road losing streak. But Coach Sean Peyton is mixing it up with a little Hip Hop during warm ups at practice and executive decisions regarding changing the color of Gatorade have been Delegated to the Players. Sounds more than Google than the NFL. But, make no mistake, They are focused. Primarily on the game plan and execution. A game plan I would assume will include several blitz packages.
Peyton: WildCard Record 50%.
Experience in the playoffs 3 out of the last 4 years.
Kelly College Playoff Record 50%.
Kelly NFL Playoff Experience 0.
Cold Brees
Saints have Scored an avg of 16 points Less per game this year on the Road.
Saints have the 2nd best regular season road record in the NFL 23-17 (since 2009).
Peyton is 1-1 during Wildcard Rounds. 50%. But he did lose "On the Road Outdoors" to Seattle and Won "In the Dome vs Detroit". Brees is 3-7 in Temperatures under 40 Degrees.
Power Rankings
The Eagles Offensive and Defensive Lines are Superior.
The Saints Rush Offense is Inferior.
The Saints Pass Offense is Superior to the Weak Eagles Pass defense.
However, if The Eagles make it difficult to Run. It could Slow the Saints Pass Offense.
On the Other Hand. Saints also have a Strong Rush Def and 42 sacks.
5 Sacks Slowed the Eagles vs Dallas. That Combined with a Strong Saints Rush Defense could produce 3 and Outs and keep Brees on the Field. The Saints Red Zone Defense only allows 38% TDs in the red Zone.
Summary
Foles is an Excellent QB complimented by Explosive Running Talent vs a Weak Rush Defense.
Brees also has an advantage - facing a Weak Pass Defense. As you can see from the Match Up Chart above - This game is a Risky Proposition. I put my Money where my mouth is with the Saints. But I would Not Recommend you so the same. I do like the Positive approach Peyton is taking with the team. Hope it pays off for me. But there are way too many variables in this one - that no one can predict. At -2.5 - No chance for Push. this is a Zero Sum Trade. (OFF).
Power Rankings
The Eagles Offensive and Defensive Lines are Superior.
The Saints Rush Offense is Inferior.
The Saints Pass Offense is Superior to the Weak Eagles Pass defense.
However, if The Eagles make it difficult to Run. It could Slow the Saints Pass Offense.
On the Other Hand. Saints also have a Strong Rush Def and 42 sacks.
5 Sacks Slowed the Eagles vs Dallas. That Combined with a Strong Saints Rush Defense could produce 3 and Outs and keep Brees on the Field. The Saints Red Zone Defense only allows 38% TDs in the red Zone.
Summary
Foles is an Excellent QB complimented by Explosive Running Talent vs a Weak Rush Defense.
Brees also has an advantage - facing a Weak Pass Defense. As you can see from the Match Up Chart above - This game is a Risky Proposition. I put my Money where my mouth is with the Saints. But I would Not Recommend you so the same. I do like the Positive approach Peyton is taking with the team. Hope it pays off for me. But there are way too many variables in this one - that no one can predict. At -2.5 - No chance for Push. this is a Zero Sum Trade. (OFF).
Closer Look: Niners vs Packers
Deceiving Stats.
As you can see from the Chart above - SF Dominates the Offensive Line and Rush offense.
SF Total Offense is (12th) vs GB Total defense (26th). Statistically SF is a much Better team.
The Big Problem with this game is that the Stats do not include Rodgers. He has only been back for 1 Game.
Better Offense = Better Defense.
How many times have we seen a Defense collapse from exhaustion after multiple 3 and Outs by its Offense? Obviously the Return of Rodgers Skews the Offensive stats. But, it also Skews the Defensive stats. If this is true - You may see a 26th Ranked Defense play more like Top 10.
GB actually had more sacks than SF. Once you subtract 7.5 for Mathews (Out) they only fall a few short. That does not change the Fact that the GB Pass Def is 25th. GB will not become the SF Defense overnight.
Offensive Weapons.
When you match Receiving targets Head to Head (see chart). GB actually has more individual Receivers with TDs. Lacy has more TDs than Gore. Rodgers is a better more Seasoned QB.
On the other hand - Kaepernick has Wheels and a Tight End that leads the team with 13 TDs.
But, that only helps if he has the maturity to take what hey give him. That being said. It took nothing short of a Miracle Fumble and a great last minute drive - for GB to squeeze past the Bears 32nd Defense.
Coaching.
I know the long colorful play by play posts may be messy and annoying at times. But those archives do come in handy: Week 16 Post As you can see from that Live play by play. Harbough and his Offensive Coordinator have made some pretty suspect play calls this year. Routes just short of 1st down yardage. Throwing when the run was working. Kap has also made some mental errors. McCarthy is 1-1 in the WildCard Round. Harbough has never played in One.
Last Year.
SF is tough at Home. That's where they blew out GB last year. Yes - they are also 6-2 on the Road, But that had nothing to do with last years Win. First of all, they comfortably sat of the WildCard Round last year. Also, much like the Redskins, their Offense is no longer new to NFL Defenses.
This Year.
SF looked like the 1st or 2nd best team in the league at the beginning of the year. Early losses to IND and SEA made us Wonder. Think about it! How bad did SF have to screw up this year to end up in GB for the WildCard? Truth is - Not Bad at all. They only have 4 Losses. But did lose games they really need to win vs CAR and NO. the early losses to SEA and IND just bit them in the Ass. The Niners have actually been scary consistent this year and were in perfect form vs a Playoff worthy Cardinal Defense
Summary.
If you already put money on SF - Like I did. Good chance you'll be Fine. But, as far as Recommendations go - this Dog has a few Fleas. Out of the 4 Games this week - this is about the 2nd hardest to to call. There are simply no stats that will tell us how GB will play with Rodgers back and how that will effect the Defense and outcome. A 2 Team parlay with Chiefs and Chargers is starting to look like the Smarter play. (Chargers Closer Look Next -Not sure yet).
I made a lot of money betting Golf 2 years ago. Last year decent with all the stats. But two years ago - I just watched every Tourney and then would try to guess the Headline after the following weeks tourney. "Tiger Wins" or "Michelson's back! Just deductive reasoning. Not Psychic Friends Network. Can you Picture this Headline? "Rodgers Magic Keeps Packers Alive!
Me Too. OFF? At 3 am last night -seemed like the call. But this is Football - not "The View"
So, my Pick is Twofold. There is no Evidence to support calling the System OFF this game. I added 7 Points to GB and SF still wins by 7. Good news is - my indecision just bought us Half a Point. SF -2.5. Which is what I felt this game would come down to anyway. However, Because of the intangibles listed above -It may Not be your Best Option for a Two Team Parlay either.
System Pick - SF by 3.
Closer Look: Bengals vs Chargers
Summary.
There is always a Chance Dalton could get Hot and Blow them out. But I just Do Not Think the "Don't Bet List" Bengals are not worth -7 vs a very Solid SD Team.
SD +7
So, my Pick is Twofold. There is no Evidence to support calling the System OFF this game. I added 7 Points to GB and SF still wins by 7. Good news is - my indecision just bought us Half a Point. SF -2.5. Which is what I felt this game would come down to anyway. However, Because of the intangibles listed above -It may Not be your Best Option for a Two Team Parlay either.
System Pick - SF by 3.
Closer Look: Bengals vs Chargers
(Personnel Updated)
The Spread
The CIN #1 Pass Offense vs the 27th Pass Def of SD seems to be All you Need to know.
That May be Enough for the Bengals Cover. On Closer inspection - these Teams are pretty Evenly Matched. (see chart above). This makes SD a Potential Value at +7.
The System Projects the Final Score at 19-19. Can't predict Scores - but like the +7.
Matchup
The Chargers actually win the Line of Scrimmage and Rush Off Match Up. The Bengals are 8-0 at Home. SD 4-4 on the Road.
Injuries
CIN:
WR A.J Green and TE Gresham are Limited but Probable. Bup TEs DNP.
Star CB Newman (57 Tackles 2 INTs) is Doubtful.
SD: WR Royal and RB Mathews Limited But Probable.
Dalton
The Bengals have been on our "Don't Bet List" most of the Year.
As much as I Hate Phillip Rivers. The Chargers are Not.
Week 9 Post
Dalton has Thrown 8 Picks in his last 3 Games.QB Rating 65
His Receivers have 14 TDs between them.
Rivers
Rivers is having the Season of his Life. QB Rating 91.
The Big Question Mark for Rivers. Other than being a perinatal Loser (Which he has not been this year, so far.) is Cold Weather.
Rivers was 0-3 Under 32 Degrees. Then he Threw 3 TDs for 392 Yards vs KC in 15 Degree Weather. Depends how you look at it. He's 1-3 in the Cold or Having a Great year and it Doesn't matter.
His Receivers have 22 TDs between them.
Coaches
Marvin Lewis is 0-4 in the WildCard Round
Mike McCoy - No Playoff Experience.
That May be Enough for the Bengals Cover. On Closer inspection - these Teams are pretty Evenly Matched. (see chart above). This makes SD a Potential Value at +7.
The System Projects the Final Score at 19-19. Can't predict Scores - but like the +7.
Matchup
The Chargers actually win the Line of Scrimmage and Rush Off Match Up. The Bengals are 8-0 at Home. SD 4-4 on the Road.
Injuries
CIN:
WR A.J Green and TE Gresham are Limited but Probable. Bup TEs DNP.
Star CB Newman (57 Tackles 2 INTs) is Doubtful.
SD: WR Royal and RB Mathews Limited But Probable.
Dalton
The Bengals have been on our "Don't Bet List" most of the Year.
As much as I Hate Phillip Rivers. The Chargers are Not.
Week 9 Post
Dalton has Thrown 8 Picks in his last 3 Games.QB Rating 65
His Receivers have 14 TDs between them.
Rivers
Rivers is having the Season of his Life. QB Rating 91.
The Big Question Mark for Rivers. Other than being a perinatal Loser (Which he has not been this year, so far.) is Cold Weather.
Rivers was 0-3 Under 32 Degrees. Then he Threw 3 TDs for 392 Yards vs KC in 15 Degree Weather. Depends how you look at it. He's 1-3 in the Cold or Having a Great year and it Doesn't matter.
His Receivers have 22 TDs between them.
Coaches
Marvin Lewis is 0-4 in the WildCard Round
Mike McCoy - No Playoff Experience.
Summary.
There is always a Chance Dalton could get Hot and Blow them out. But I just Do Not Think the "Don't Bet List" Bengals are not worth -7 vs a very Solid SD Team.
SD +7
SD Live:
Dalton passes a little off. SD running well. Inside CIN 20.
Nice Drive. Woodhead Runs it in. TD
7-0 SD
I Like Woodhead. He Reminds me of Mike Meyers:
CIN 3 and Out. SD Defense always seems to play better than Stats.
Penalty takes SD back to own 5.
SD only avg 30 yds Penalties per game. CIN 55.
Let's see how Rivers handles pressure. Should just let Mathews Run.OK, Mathews for 5 and 3. 3rd and 2.
Rivers misses wide open Allen. Horrible throw. PUnt
CIN at 40 - Good FPos.
SD cant afford too many 3 and out. CIN will score.
CIN Driving to 30. SD Def LIne playing Tough.
But, Screen to Bernard to 20. LB may be weakness
Bernard to 9, Bernard again for 1st, drives to 4
Line stuffs Ellis.
Dalton blindisde sack - But no - gets it away to Gresham. TD
7-7
SD 4th and 1 on own 35. Punt - but didn't give away too much Fpos to CIN. That will be important, along with limiting 3 and outs.
They really need to get to the 40 at least though - to prevent Bengals scoring.
D LIne pressuring Dalton. Holding big 10 yard help.
SD has 5th DL and 3rd Rush Off. It Shows.
As usual - the System much better at predicting Totals than I am. Looks like Under.
Dalton Deep Ball to Jones to 16. (2:00 2nd)
Short pass to Bernard to 3. Fumble SD Ball. Under Review but had possession was a fumble.
What's this crap about not reversing "Bang Bang" or quick plays. Isn't that the purpose of slow motion instant replay? Refs got it Right. SD Ball on own 11 1:47 left 2nd
Holding again in Red Zone. on SD 6 now. Let's see how Rivers does.
Need a 1st. Thinking sweep left. They went left - but no lead blocker - so not really a sweep.
3rd and 11. Woodhead stuffed at 11. Need a good punt
Great Punt! Great Coverage. CIN on 30
Dalton to Gree. To Sanu to SD 40. To Gresham to 30 (dropped ball OOB) Review)
That was a catch. had possession, made football move then out of bounds. .
CIN on 30 - 2 seconds left 2nd
10-7 CIN (HT)
Phill Sims is an idiot. Don't Open it up! Stick with Game plan and be patient. Run will set up a few long pass plays. Otherwise they will key on Rivers and sack his ass off.
Big 3rd and 4 at 50 for CIN Dalton tries to run for it. Stopped.
Big series for SD now, Need a solid drive - not a quick score. If they go for Big plays right away 3 and out is likely. Long drive keeps it away from CIN.
Good Rivers took what they gave him,. Nice gain.
1st Down Mathews Niiice. 6 yds to Gates. Woodhead Run manageable 3rd and 1
Allen to the 50. The Big Play will open up if they keep this up.
Corners and Safeties will start inches forward. They will get behind them eventually.
3rd and 5. Rivers short pass for 1st to Green. Nicely done.
Play action - Pass to Royal to 5!
Pass high to left corner. Green goes up for it. TD!
10-14 SD
Dalton Runs for it. Fumbles as he hits ground. Not touched SD Ball at 50
Woodhead and Mathews grinding away on the ground to the 30.
Allen Deep Out - comes back for ball. 1st on CIN 13. Woodhead powers to the 10. Keep Running it! Woodhead to the 6. 3rd and 6. Almost coverage sack. Throws it away. FG
10-17 SD
Need a TD there to pull away a little. But good Drive and keeping Ball away from Dalton. Defense had a chance to rest. Another stop will be Huge for SD.
Dalton Pressured. Pick! 1st and Goal SD.
Delay of Game. Rivers screaming. Keep your cool man!
1st and Goal from 10. NO Worries - be patient!
throws it away deep corner - was open underneath! Short passes and run it in!
Woodhead to 2. 3rd and Goal
Slow stretch play right - Read that all the way. Lousy play call. Boot right would have scored.
FG
20-10 SD 4th.
Two turnovers - 6 Points. Nice Drives but Horrible in Red Zone. SD only 50% in RZ coming in.
CIN allows 67%. Bengals 100% in RZ coming in. Could have put this way. Letting Bengals hang around. Dangerous.
SD Def Line on Fire! But Corners give up 1st again. Bernard stuffed by D Line again!
Beat the other corner now for another 1st.
Left corner, Right corner. now left again for another first.
Shuffle Pass to Bernard over middle for 15
LBs and CBs need to step up need a Pick or turnover
There you GO! Ingram cuts off the short out Pick! + 15 yd penalty!
SD runs. 3 and 1. FB stuffed. Easy QB sneak. Gotta punt. Could have put them away. Going on 4th Delay of Game. Really guys?
3 Turnovers - 6 Points. Pathetic!
Bengals drive. SD Holds on 4th.
SD Ball 4:04 4th
Final SD 27-10
Sorry - Had to go cash my Ticket:
KC +1.5 / SD +7 $50 to Pay $175
and hedge my big Bet ending with Niner game.
$100 to Pay $1350 if SF Covers -3
$358 if GB Covers +3
3-0 Baby!
NO/PHI Live:
Saints Defense as advertised so far. Brees does look like his grip is a little off in the cold. Missed a sure TD on 1st drive.
Brees throws rare pick deep. PHI on own 30. Ball not coming out clean.
Foles release looks comfortable. Perfect Spirals
PHI 4th and 1 on NO 20. McCoy for 5.
Sack!
3rd down McCoy to 30. 48 yd FG attempt No Good!
NO: Robinson running well in place of Thomas
Saints drive to PHI 30 3rd and 3
Sproles to 25
Brees to Graham short of 1st. Fumble? Knee was down.
Refs got it right.
4th and inches at 13
Brees sneak - 1st down. False Start!
4th and 5
3-0 NO
Saints to PHI 42 - Pick #2 Brees! Right in hands of MLB
PHI to NO 22
2nd and 9 on NO 11
Foles lotta time. pressure from Left, drills it to Cooper TD!
7-3 PHIBrees throws rare pick deep. PHI on own 30. Ball not coming out clean.
Foles release looks comfortable. Perfect Spirals
PHI 4th and 1 on NO 20. McCoy for 5.
Sack!
3rd down McCoy to 30. 48 yd FG attempt No Good!
NO: Robinson running well in place of Thomas
Saints drive to PHI 30 3rd and 3
Sproles to 25
Brees to Graham short of 1st. Fumble? Knee was down.
Refs got it right.
4th and inches at 13
Brees sneak - 1st down. False Start!
4th and 5
3-0 NO
Saints to PHI 42 - Pick #2 Brees! Right in hands of MLB
PHI to NO 22
2nd and 9 on NO 11
Foles lotta time. pressure from Left, drills it to Cooper TD!
Poor Saints offense - Really allowed PHI back in game. Saints defense was containing them.
Brees complete for 17. But, ball floating a little.
Sproles for 13 to 45
Brees pass to right sideline - low and behind but complete
Brees pas deflected 3rd down
Brees tackled at 26 :23 in 4th
FG
7-6 PHI (HT)
Looks like Brees is having trouble finding a throwing lane. Trying to throw Over Def linemen. Unable to step into throw or bring it down. I think that is effecting him more than the cold.
Also bad Play calling. 7 straight passes., All out of shotgun. Need to bring the run back in with Sproles. Otherwise, they will just keep pressuring him. Less shotgun, more Runs, quick slants, and screens to combat Blitz. Only down by 1 - no need to go for long passes so often. Run will also keep Foles off the field
3rd Qtr:
Big stop for NO. Sack. PHI punts from 10
Saints start at 48
Ingram for 5 - good start
Short hitch for 1st
Run Ingram for 10
Run for 6. Hold 1st, 20.
Brees rolls to hits Moore in the stride over middle. TD!
13-7 NO
That's right! Get out of that backfield and stay vertical.
Wow, Foles to Cooper for 20 yd gain easy - drops it. PHI Punt from 20
3rd and 2 - slant for 1st. But Hold. Brees pressured again. Looks like cutting the left tackle and playing a Rookie - no so smart by Peyton.
Brees Deep out for 20. 1st!
Brees escapes pressure. Passes to PHI 27.
Ingram for 10
Sproles 3 yd pass - drags them for 9
Ingram Run - 1st and Goal
Just keep Running it!
Ingram for 9. TD!
20- 7 NO
PHI Driving. Foles to Avant. Lewis Racks him. Incomplete. Lewis Down!
Lewis responsible for covering Jackson.
Foles pressured. Rolling right near sideline. Long pass to Jackson on sideline.
3rd and Goal. 4th Down.
McCoy run TD!
20-14 NO :22 3rd
Brees sits in pocket. Tryng to go deep. Throws it away.
7 yd Run Ingram. Penalty 3 and Out
Penalties Killing Saints
PHI going after Lewis Replacement hard. 1TD off him already
PHI 3rd and 6 from NO 15.
Saints hold!
PHI FG
20-14 NO 11 minutes 4th
Lewis arguing to come back in.
Saints ball
Brees to Meachem to PHI 22!
Run for 5
3rd and 4
Brees waits for play to develop. Throws it away. Way too long a play for 4 yds.
2 runs would have given them a 1st and probably a TD.
23-17 NO 7:59 4th
PHI driving. 1st at Saints 42
Long pass to Jackson. PI 1st and Goal
Foles to TE TD!
24-23 PHI 4:54 4th
Sproles takes Kickoff turns the corner to 35. Horse Collar. 1st Down on 50!
Robinson for 13!
Quick Pass to Colston. 3rd and 2 PHI 32.
Brees keeps it. 1st down! on PHI 25
5yd gain
Robinson Run. 3rd and inches
Brees to 9 for 1st!
:45 4th
FG Good!
Final 26-24 Saints
For all of you who bet the original System Pick. Congrats!
Off wasn't a bad call Either
System Called the NO Cover
Sorry Everyone. Didn't realize some text was coming out black. Blogger word processor is horrible. Won't happen again.
Live:
24-7 KC
Mike Mayock is such a Tool. Shot his mouth off about colts. "Blah,Blah,Blah, My Money's on Colts." Now Squirming and trying to explain himself live on air. LOL.
KC hold IND to FG. 24-10
Jamaal Charles 11 minutes into 1st - Helmet to turf. Concussion . Out for Game.
Predicted KC would dominate time of Possession with Run, With Charles out - Alex Smith has stepped up. Passing and running out of pocket. He is on Fire! Miles Davis finishes long drive with 7 yard run. 31-10 KC
Mayock going on and on about how great Luck is right now. Not really calling the game - just profusely kissing Shrek's ass. I'm embarrassed for him. Long pass to Hilton - wide open. Hilton has shredded the KC Defense several times. Only Houston and Hali keeping Colts in check. Sack! Next play Pick!
Maybe Mayock will shut up now!
Halftime
They call Mayock out about his predicting Colts win. He actually lies about saying how good KC is up front. Oooh Mike.. Do Shut up.
Luck throws 7 yd out route. CB Abdula cuts off the route. Pick #2 for Luck!
That should shut mayock up.
3rd and 6 on IND 15. Smith avoids trouble, rolls right, hits RB Davis on swing pass TD KC!
38-10 KC
Luck to Hilton, Pass to Brown, Deep ball to Rodgers. Brown runs it in for TD.
38-17 KC
Nice drive KC to own 45. Smith scrambling in backfield, Rolls left. Mathis from his blindside. Swats ball loose. Colts Recover on KC 40
Luck to Hilton to 5 yd line. Swing pass right to Brown. TD!
38-24 KC
Colts crossing routes vs KC man coverage leaving Receivers wide open.
Remember that for next game if KC holds on to win. If they play a good Off line that can handle Houston and Hali - with good QB - could spell trouble for KC secondary.
KC: WR Avery Out! Concussion. DB Flowers Out! Concussion.
RB Charles Out! Concussion.
Colts kick off. KC return man down on field after hard hit.
Smith perfect slant pass for first. Knocked out of WR hands by IND DB. 4th Down KC.
Luck throws behind Receiver. Abdula takes it away from him. Pick #3 Luck #2 Abdula!
KC drive from IND 30 - not eevn 1 1st down. FG
Smith taking 7 step drops vs heavy pass rush is insane. Playing call supect. very few verticle plays. all swings and sweeps. Completely infective.
41-24 KC
Luck to Brazil deep. Pass to Fleener TD!
41-31 KC
Smith bootleg for 1st. Nice drive to 50. WR Grey wide out for TD - Smith over throws him by 7 yards. Missed huge opportunity to put it away. 3rd and 8 - Smith running around backfield. Got to get vertical and release sooner. 4th down Punt.
Colts 3rd and 10 from own 10 yd line. Hoge stop for KC if they hold. KC gives up 1st
Colts drive to KC 10. 2 and Goal. RB drops handoff. Luck picks it up and reaches over for TD.
41-38 KC
KC driving. RB Davis down - injured!
Huge 3rd and 5 on own 40. Smith pass 1st down! Gray in for Davis - 2 yd gain.
Another lateral pass for 1 yd. 3rd and 7
Smith to Jenkins for 20 yds!
KC takes 2 time outs in 4 plays to avoid delays of game.
Another lateral sweep. 2nd and 6
Swing again - loss of 4!
KC: RB Davis Out! Concussion.
3rd and 11 6 minute left Pass complete 4 yds short of 1st! Really? FG
44-38 KC
Long pass Hilton TD!
44-45 IND
Just realized - if we lose by 2 we Cover. Lets hope!
Can smith win this with his whole offense out?
Smith to Bowe to 45!
Smith to Bowe to IND 45! 3:19 4th
Gray to the 40
Mathis hurries Smith - Grounding - huge penalty!
KC on IND 42, 4th and 11 2 minute warning!
Smith to Bowe along right Sideline.
DB pushes him toward sideline before ball arrives.
Caught Out of Bounds. IND Ball.
SHOULD BE OBVIOUS PASS INTERFERENCE!
Mayock compliments DB for pushing. Not a word about a penalty.
Really guys?
Colts take a knee.
Final 45-44 IND
Gotta feel for smith and Chiefs. He played a great first half. Never seen that many stars knocked out on a team in one game. Lousy play calling though.
Colts allowed very few yards after catch. Remember that next week.
We win! KC +2.5
