WEEK 13 NFL HANDICAPPING RESULTS 2013

What a Week!

Let's See:

Lions: Nice, Easy Cover. 
Raiders: Suweet, OAK and the Over. 1 Game left for $685. 
Ravens: 4 team parlay comes down to last play of 4th game. Lost by 1 Point.
Colts: System Called it - I didn't. 
Bears: Overtime. Can't Miss Kicker - Missed FG, Loss.
Jaguars: Called Nice Upset. This is a QB Driven League. Our Rating Weeden -68.
Jets / Dolpins: Nice! Easy Under.
Pats / Texans: Nice, No Cover Call. Great Game!
Bills: Refs Call PI on BUF -when it was Off PI -gave game to Falcons.1 System Loss.
Broncos: System Called it.
Giants. Easy Cover.
SeaHawks: Total 34 at Halftime. Over Loses. Brutal.

Lady luck can be a Real Biotch. That's why we Bet for Fun and Not to pay the Rent.
While I went through a Roller Coaster Ride - The System plodded along at 2 -1.

System Season Total: 46-24 66%
System Week 13  2-1 67%

Rick Week 13  7-5 58%

http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk132013.html

The Good News!
Learned a lot.

New! RZO Spread Indicator: 6- 0 100%.  Ever lose a game watching your team choke in the Red Zone? We'll, when the Ravens (not my team) failed to cover - I looked at their RZO. The % of Times they Score a TD in the Red Zone. It was 44%. So I added each teams RZO and their RZO vs Opponent next to the Spread. Bingo! If both the RZO and RZO Vs were Red or Blue - the Lost or Won. (See Results Link Above.) 

(OL) In looking at why I lost the Chicago Game - I noticed that the Vikings (OL) was 24 Ranks better than the Bears. I really like McCown and Marshall. But, Screw Gut, Look at the Data. Just because that game didn't Qualify, doesn't mean we should ignore the Qualifiers.

Over Unders: When I first started Capping Over / Unders, with great success I might add,  I primarily used Pass Off vs Pass Def. We were like 10-0 at the beginning of the year on Over / Unders. When the Bears / Vikings failed to Cover the Over - I looked at that Game. Why did they did not come close to the Projected Total? Dah! Two Offensive Stars were Out or Questionable on Each Team. Most of them played, but not at full strength. So, Injuries, along with Weather have been added to the Over / Under rating. 

Note about Weather.  Cold is not enough - unless under 25 Degrees. Look at the Wind. It not only creates a Chill Factor, it effects Passing-Ball flight and FG%.   

Back to Pass Offense vs Pass Defense. Last week 2 Teams were below -20 on the combined PO vs PD O/U Matchup. Both Lost. (See Results Link Above.) 

Blow Outs:  Last week there were 3 Blow Outs. All went Under. If a team Dominates the Offensive and Defensive sides of the Matchup. 3 and Outs by the other team - account for additional Drives and the high Winning score. But, those 3 and Outs by the losing team Reduce the total score. Seattle perfect example. Looking at the RZO of both teams - good indicator.

Parlays: I admit, I got tempted into trying to make a big hit and did 2, 4 team Parlays last week. As we all know, Pros do not even bet parlays. So, if we are going to, better to stick with 2 or 3 teamers. For me, $60 still pays $360. It's Not $700 plus, but if you don't win - it's Pie in the Sky anyway.

The System. As consistent as the System has been, there is More to Handicapping a Game than just Stat Rank (MUP) Off Line (OL) and Projected Spread Cover (SpBy). That System has averaged 75% going on 3 years. So, we do not want to stop using those Main Qualifiers. However,. If the System doesn't Qualify any games or just a few, Everyone still wants Juice on the other games.

Over the last few weeks, I have replaced Gut feelings with a checklist factoring additional data. 
Some of Which I have discussed above. That is why you do not see any more Early Line picks from me. The system will continue to use those main indicators as Qualifiers, but we can improve our chances on other games by factoring additional indicators. Also, calling Off System picks that are Red flagged by other important Data

Early Line picks: As Calvin pointed out - Early Line mistakes by the Oddsmakers can be Money. Unfortunately I can't compile the Data early enough to take advantage and injury Reports don't really come out until Wednesday. The other problem I had was doing an early ticket and ending up with the same team on 2 tickets - Big No NO.  However, This is one area where gut picks could earn you a big pay off. So, if you see something that looks like an opportunity - do a 4 team for a few buck and forget the ticket until Tuesday. Nice of me to suggest that on Tuesday night eh. LOL. 

OK just looked: Breaking my word:

BAL 44% RZO not worth 7 vs MIN
Saints giving 3.5 might be .5 or 3.5  too much over Panthers.
SF -2.5 should not be favored vs SEA

There's a 3 Team for you. What the hell do I know. I'll bet it in the Morning and hide it from myself, so it doesn't effect my other picks.

Posting Picks: Holidays are Over, but still catching up. Thursday will be up by Thursday Morning. The other games by Friday morning.