THURSDAY NIGHT NFL MATCHUP WEEK 15 2013

Post Game
As I posted Pregame - this game was a Risky bet to begin with.
When I first looked at this game, I saw that Welker was out.  I was in a hurry for the book to open so I could get the 10.5 and San Diego.  Then I looked at the Huge Miss-match between the Charger Defense and Denver Offense (posted below). So what happened?

First Half
I first had Welker worth -7, then after reviewing some box scores, dropped him to -4. 
He was crucial vs Titans, But only contributed 35 yards the week before. Manning does not go 3 and out - 3 times in a row.  On crucial 3rd down plays tonight - Manning threw to empty turf.  This was due to miscommunication with Receivers. Welker doesn't make those mistakes. I know now he is worth about 10 not 4. All those Three and Outs didn't help an already struggling Denver Defense.

Second Half
Careless 3rd and 4th down penalties prolonged San Diego drives and kept the ball out of Manning hands for an additional 20 minutes.  20 minutes - out of 60. That's right - Nearly Half the Denver Time of Possession was lost to needless defensive penalties. Playoff teams do not make those kind of mistakes. 

This had a twofold effect. Increased San Diego Scoring and Decreased Denver Scoring - about 3 Drives - worth between 10 and 21 points. The San Diego Offense is not that good and Neither is it's defense.

What Happened?
San Diego scored about what we expected. But between the 20 minutes in penalties and 3 and outs without Welker - subtract at least 24 points. Without those negatives - Denver covers and game goes Over.  BTW, Denver averages 71 yards per game in penalties. I subtracted 3 points for that. Maybe that was worth 10 too.


No Defense No Rings
At the beginning of the year I thought Moreno was the weak link for the Broncos. He has proven me wrong.  It is now evident that a Defense Ranked in the 20s can not compete in the playoffs with Top 10 Defenses like Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco. You can't score enough against them - to compensate for a defense allowing that many points.

Is Peyton Manning is on your Christmas list? If so, a Kindle would be a nice gift. He will have a lot of free time to kill on the sidelines - if they do not fix the Bronco's defense. Either that or a Big Screen for him to watch the playoffs on.

____________________________________________________________________________ 

DEN -10.5 @ Home vs SD

View Matchup
http://www.happycapper.com/W15DEN-SD.html


SPREAD SUMMARY
Reminds me of the Defenses in the CHI / DAL game (Scorgy) - only one sided in Favor of Denver.

DEN
#1 Off Line vs 28th SD Def Line (+27)
#1 Pass Off vs 27th SD Pass Def. (+26)
#3 Rush Off vs 29th SD Rush Def. (+26)

SD
5th Off Line vs DEN 19th Def Line (+14)
4th Pass Off vs DEN 22nd Pass Def. (+18)

Everyone is talking about Denver having a weak defense. But as you can see above - the lack of SD Defense is the key to this game. There is enough advantage on the San Diego side to go Over. But not enough for them to even keep it close with an Absolute Absence of Defense vs the #1 Offense in the NFL. .

DEN scored 51 points vs 8th Ranked TEN Pass Def Last week. 
What will they do vs the 27th? 

Welker is out for Broncos. But Manning has many targets to chose from. I subtracted 4 for his absence. and Gave SD 3 for the return of Royal with 7 TDs. They still Cover. DEN by 13.
Depends what you think Welker is Worth? If you Think 7 instead of 4 - Lay off.

Projected Denver 41-28 
PICK DEN -10.5

OVER / UNDER SUMMARY 
NO WIND, NO RAIN, 30 degrees. GOOD OFFENSES vs BAD TO AVERAGE DEF, GOOD RED ZONE OFFENSES vs BAD RED ZONE DEFENSES. GOOD FG KICKERS, BAD PUNTERS - OVER!

OVER / UNDER (55.5)
PICK - (69) OVER!

The Tight Spread and High Over - Make this a Risky Bet. 
__________________________________________________________________

 ALERT! SEA -7 @ NYG 

SD just hammered them by 23. 

SEA #1 PASS DEF VS 29TH PASS OFF. 10TH RUSH DEF VS 15TH RUSH OFF. SEA 67% RED ZONE OFF VS NYG ALLOWING 60% TDs. NYG 67% RZO TOO - BUT SEA RZD ALLOWS 33%. NYG GOOD PUNTER. SEA GREAT FG% BAD PUNTER. T/O RATIO  +25 SEA.

(SEA by 17) They will Destroy the Giants!  Don't Bet the O/U too- take the Easy Money. With all the 3 and outs - SEA could Run Up the Score.
Projected Seattle 21-6

I will have all Picks Live by Friday Night. Lots of Injury Reports including QB Starts not Released yet. In The Meantime 3 Solid Picks:

SEA
KC
PHI