WEEK 16 NFL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS 2013

WEEK 16 POWER RANKING MATCH UPS 
I took the time to Rank each team by Overall Offense and Defense. Very telling and hopefully helpful for this weeks picks.
http://www.happycapper.com/WK16POWER.html
http://www.happycapper.com/ResultsWk162013.html
(SYSTEM)
INJURIES UPDATED FRI: 6:18PM
(WIN) DEN: WELKER - OUT! BUT SCHAUB FOR KEENUM - STILL LIKE DEN.
(WIN) CLE: WR 7TDS- CAMERON OUT! NYJ -2.5 - GRAB IT! JETS 5-2 HM CLE 1-5 RD
(WIN) GB: RODGERS-OUT! = PIT+2.5 - GRAB IT! 

TOP PICKS
(WIN) DEN
(LOSS) KC
(WIN) NE

MONEYLINE PARLY
(WIN) JETS - 2.5 - SPREAD
(LOSS) MIN  +350 - MONEYLINE
(WIN) PIT  +115 - MONEYLINE  
$40 PAYS $700
(don't bet the farm - but has a good chance.)  

PROBIBITIVE FAVORITES
(LOSS) DAL
(LOSS) DET
(WIN) UND - STL / TB (27TH /30TH OFF vs 8th/9th DEF, BOTH BAD RED ZONE OFF)

SEA VS AZ. (I TOOK SEA @ HM BUT STATS SAY 10.5 TOO MUCH TO GIVE.)
 
TRAPS AND TIPS WEEK 16

(Good Call - Close Game) @ PANTHERS - 3 SAINTS

CAR-OFF-21ST / DEF-4TH
NO-OFF-11TH / DEF-7TH

STAY OFF- This game could easily go either way. 

Saints
Peyton is a much better coach than Rivera - who had no clue how to handle New Orleans 14 days ago. The game plans won't change much in 2 weeks. Unless Rivera has taken smart pills - you could see similar results. Brees is a much better QB than Newton. Cam is extremely talented, but does not have the experience or maturity to play from behind - if Saints get ahead. Projected Red Zone Offense vs CAR - 42%. NO - 59%.

Panthers
On the other hand - Panthers are 6-1 at home and Saints have lost their last 2 road games badly. The Saints are starting a Rookie Left Tackle (with no game snaps) to protect Brees vs a team with the most sacks per game (3.2) in the NFL. Saints have also replaced their Place Kicker with Shayne Graham - who has not kicked in a live game since 2012. He made 31 of 38 81.6% for Houston last year - with a long of 51. Hartley was 22 of 30 73.3% with a long of 55. So, the new Kicker probably wont hurt the saints. 

As you can see, a strong case could be made for either team. Save a parlay - stay off.


(Good Call - What did I say about Cutler?)
@ EAGLE - 3 BEARS

PHI-OFF-15TH / DEF-27TH
CHI-OFF-5TH / DEF-17TH

EAGLES: - But Risky?  

Bears
The head to head stats favor Chicago. They do have the better defense. I Love Marshall and Forte, The team has solid talent. Under McCown - They flourished. However, in spite of what the tools on NFL Channel are saying - Cutler was overthrowing receivers and looked like crap vs Cleveland. He is a perennial loser and will cost Chicago a playoff birth - probably this week.

Eagles
The Eagles have a weak Defense. However, Foles is having a Pro Bowl worthy year. Speed kills and Eagles have plenty of it.  If they get the lead - Cutler will crack and give up the ball. Philly + 6 T/O Ratio vs Bears.

Love the Eagles in this one - but if the Bears get a lead, Cutler could survive one more game and cover.  

(BAD CALL - WENT AGAINST THE SYSTEM )  
@ BENGALS - 7 VIKINGS

CIN-OFF-1ST / DEF-5TH
MIN-OFF-9TH / DEF-12TH

VIKINGS: MONEYLINE

(READ WEEK 9 BLOG)

Bengals
The Bengals have the best Overall Stats of any team in the NFL. But, like John Brodie once said; "stats are like A holes, everyone has one." CIN is a solid team with weapons. However, as you can see from the Week 9 recap (above) - they have fatal flaws. Dalton throws off his back foot - making him prone to picks. The Offensive line is suspect, making him prone to sacks. The play calling is often senseless. For these Reasons - it is impossible to know which Bengals team will show up. If they get it all right - they blow people out. If not, they are a parlay killer. 

Vikings 
The Vikings stats are not much different than the Bengal's - 9th overall. The Coach, QB and Running Backs (when Peterson's out) are all playing for their jobs. Doing a pretty good job of it too. Over the last 3 weeks - They Trounced Philly last week 48-30 - lost by 3 to Baltimore and beat Chicago in OT. Cassell has played well. This team is very dangerous right now.

Don't bet the Farm - But like Vikings Moneyline.  
@

(Good Call -What did I Tell you about Flacco) 
RAVENS - 2.5 PATRIOTS
 
BAL-OFF-25TH / DEF-11TH
NE-OFF-7TH / DEF-15TH

PATS! Don't let the Hype Fool you.

Patriots
New England 9th Offense vs Ravens 25th Offense. Although Gronkowski is on IR - The other young wide receivers are healthy this week. Projected TDs in Red Zone vs Ravens 82%. Over the last 3 weeks - Ravens Offense has only scored TDs 40% of the time in the Red Zone and have allowed 100%!

  Ravens
I asked a friend what he thought of this game. He said "I don't know...those Ravens have a hell of a kicker." After I wiped the spray of coffee off my computer screen - we had a talk. Kicking 6 field goals in a game is nothing to brag about-unless you are the kicker. If you fail to remember the past - you are destined to repeat it. I have not forgotten Thanksgiving day. the 4th leg of a $900 4 team parlay, required the Ravens to cover 3 against the Steelers. They had 5 chances to put the game away and settled for 5 field goals. The Steelers defense is ranked 25th - NE - 15th. Flacco is the most overpaid QB in the league. The only hope they have of winning - is if Flacco (in a leg brace now) - gets hurt and Tyrod Taylor comes in.  Not kidding - the kid has skills and could blow my ticket if he gets the rock.

If Flacco stays in - Easy win for Pats.