Getting Over the Under

When you saw the NFL Weather Forecast this week - Were you thinking - Highest Scoring week in NFL History?  

Me neither. With half the games in sub Freezing temperatures - did you consider taking the Under on a few?  Me too.  We all know it hurts your fingers catching a ball when its that cold. Receivers drop passes - Right?  Wrong!  See any Receivers in that 19 degree Chicago game without gloves on?  Do you freeze your ass off when you go skiing? No. You dress accordingly. Think multimillion dollar athletes are less prepared than you on your trip to Vail?

What we Learned This Week
I learned more this week about Overs and Unders than any week in my history. Only part of that had anything to do with meteorology or scoring records. First let's finish addressing the weather issue. 

High Winds and Heavy Rain.
Light snow has little effect on the Total.  There are 2 main weather conditions that can push a game under. When wind gets above 20 miles per hour - it can effect the ball flight of passes. This can cause passes to miss targets and even persuade a team to abandon the pass in favor of the run game. That can slow down the game and reduce scoring. Heavy rain causes similar problems.   But - Weather alone is not enough -  you still need to consider other factors. 

Note: An Offensive player knows which direction he is going to run. Defensive players have to react. Advantage Offense on a Slippery Field or in Poor Visibility.  
Example Philadelphia vs Detroit.

Extreme Cold and Distance
I can hit my 9 Iron about 130 yards on a hot summer day.  When temps drop below 60 - I lose about 20 yards. Footballs do not travel as far when its cold either. Thinking passes  - don't. 
The west coast offense was built on short passes you can throw just fine on frozen tundra. 
When temps drop below 30 - a Punt is not going to go as far. NFL Punters average 40. A decent punter averages 45 - the better ones 49.  How do shorter punts effect the total? They help the Over! Offenses punt for 35 yards from the 20. Each team has great field position most of the game. Your Under just turned into an Over. Maybe - now the other factors.

Other Factors

Combined Offensive Production. 
Let's take the High Wind or Heavy Rain scenario. Both offenses have abandoned the pass. You have two Bad Defensive lines and 2 great Rush Offenses. Over!

Chicago vs Dallas
Cold as hell, 19 degrees and wind chill. But - wind under 20 mph. Dallas Pass Defense 29th. Bears Pass Offense 5th. Chicago came within 3 points of covering the Over (48) by themselves!

Combined Pass Offense.
Simple math. 
Chicago Pass Offense 5th. Dallas Pass Defense 29th = (24). 
Dallas Pass Offense 7th. Chicago Pass Defense 12th  = (5). 
Combined Pass Offense = (29) 
Combined Pass Offenses Under -20 are 4-0 Under the Total for the last two weeks.  
Problem
24 of that (29) was Chicago. That could be a Blow Out.

Blow Outs Often Go Under
Blow Outs. Like Seattle Over New Orleans are caused by One Team Dominating both Offense and Defense. Starts with Defense. Three and outs prevent one team from scoring and give the dominant team more possessions. You end up with one sided scoring. If you recall, that game went Under! So to figure the Chicago game we need to consider additional stats:

Combined Offense Line.
Dallas Offensive Line 14th. Chicago Defensive Line 32nd = (18).  
Chicago Offensive Line 3rd. Dallas Defensive Line 29th = (26).
Combined Offense Line (44)
As you would guess from the Def Line stats - they both have Bad Rush Defenses. 
Chicago 32nd, Dallas 29th.

Combined Red Zone Offense. 
Like the other combined stats - you cross them. Each team was projected to score about 56% of the time in the Red Zone - which is good.

Lack of Defense on both sides, and Two Decent Offenses - Made it impossible for either team to stop the scoring. 

See why the CHI / DAL went Over?

Field Goals.
Heavy Rain and High Winds also decrease the Distance and Accuracy of Field Goals. However, that could cause a team to go for it on 4th down and Push the Game Over. Maybe?
That depends on Drive efficiency and Red Zone Offense. Gotta make that 4th down and then they have to score.

Drive Efficiency
Dallas 3rd down conversion % and First Downs per Game were very low.
Chicago scored good to average in those categories.

See why Chicago Passed for over 300 Yards and Won Easily?

Neither Answer had anything to do with the bone chilling weather.