NFL PICKS WEEK 7 WEEKEND 2015

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 POSTGAME_________________

System Pick LOSS
ATL -6 @ Titans (BANK BET)

Note: I apologize, this was a Bank Bet that counts toward the Record and bank total. But is was "not" a System Pick.  It did not qualify and I did not mean to list it as one. . 

Final ATL 10 -7

Really?

1st Half
I predicted the Falcons could Run all over the Titans. They did. But penalties called back several 30 yard Run plays. Then they abandon the Run on crucial 3rd and 4th downs. Some nice Runs and a Pass get them inside the 20. In the red Zone They Pass? - Result - INT. 

In the 2nd half they Return to the Run but Penalties again call back huge gains. A TD to make it 17-10 (spread -6) is called a foot short. In the Red Zone (from a yard out) they "Pass! Result - INT.

In spite of all this we would have still covered if not for 2 Missed FGs! 

We can call it perfect and still lose sometimes.
_________________________________________________ 

Impossible? 
Parody is epidemic in the NFL. It is now considered impossible by the experts to go 60% or better against the NFL Spread. That's OK!  I Love a good challenge. Tell me something is impossible and I that just makes it worth doing even more.  

We've done this better than anyone for 4 years.  So this is like a progressive slot machine. If you don't quit  - you cant loose. I refined the system even further this week. I will go 60% plus this year - just to prove it can be done. I Can't wait for next week. 

Take a look below at how well we are calling these games. We know what should happen - that's half the battle. The hardest part is guessing what will? It's not easy - but - it's not impossible either.

Week 7 Report Card
It's just a matter of translating what we are correctly predicting into more winning tickets.
Here's How Our System did Overall so far This Week. (Pretty Damn Good Calls) 

+ SEA - Predicted SeaHawks Blow Out (SEA 20-3)
+ Called Off the Bills  (Lost to JAC) 
+ Projected Vikings to cover -2.5 (MIN by 9)
+ Called Miss Match Stronger D Line and Pass Def STL (STL 24 CLE 6)
+ Called Off the Colts (Saints Won Outright)
+ Called Off PIT (KC Won Outright)
+ Called Off a Texans team with Foster back - (MIA Won Big)
+ Called Off NE -9 - Projected Score (30-24) Final (30-23)
+ Predicted TB's Doug Martin would Factor vs WAS ( Rushed for 136 yds!) TB covered.
+ Predicted OAK Beats SD (OAK 37-6 3rd)
+ Called Off NYG -3.5 (NYG 27-20) If you watched you were glad I stayed off. I'll Take a +
 + Called both sides CAR to Cover and the Under.
+ Called OFF ARI  -8.5 on SAT. ARI by 8. 



PREGAME_________________


We only have 2 Bank Bets this week. 1 is in the bag - a win with SEA. The other is ATL. I am not trying to be super careful - this week just features a lot of close games that did not quality as system picks. Two that did are have intangibles that called me off.

System Pick OFF
Steelers -2.5 @ KC

PIT should Roll all over KC with Bryant back & projected at 73% in the Red Zone. Landry Jones has 2 TDs 0 INTs - they should Sack Smith and produce 3 and outs. I like them even more now -  giving less than a TD.

However, I swore off betting on Todd Haley's offense. He was fired by KC for doing a Lousy job Been horrible this yr too and KC knows his tendencies. I was gonna still bet PIT - But - they lose the Offensive Line match up BIG and I do not like the way running back Bell shops around for an opening on the way to the hole. I just have visions of him caught behind the line. Also KC is a team desperate for a win at home in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Jones looked good last week - But may not be ready for all that.

Steelers are statistically a solid System Pick - Not risking a loss. 
You make the call though with your cash

System Pick OFF
Cardinals -8.5 vs Ravens

ARI wins the Pass Offense match up big and BAL loses it big. But the Ravens Offensive Line matches up to dominate the Cards Def Line - Rush Off too and Forsett has mad skills. That might not be enough to call off - but the Spread (line) is ARI -8.5. They re only projected at 56% in the Red Zone and do not win the Rush Offense match up to run out the clock and cover 9 points with 2 minutes left if needed.   
Cardinals are statistically a solid System Pick - Not risking a loss.   
You make the call though with your cash

System Pick ON
ATL -6 @ Titans (BANK BET)

I may be wrong - But -  All the pieces fall in place for me with this game.

Mariota is Out for TEN. Yes the falcons have a weak Pass Defense - But - Titans Pass Offense is 25th with Mariota. Titans back up QB Mettenberger is decent but 8 TDs and 7 INTs. More importantly 19 sacks in his short 7 game career. I'm guessing an Offensive Line with a mobile QB like Mariota may not adjust immediately to a slow pocket passer. The Titans Offensive Line is ranked 29th!

The 10th Ranked Atlanta Pass Offense loses the Match up to the Titans 2nd ranked Pass Defense. But only by 8 ranks - both are top 10. BTW although the Falcons schedule strength is a weak 24th. The Titans are 30th. The real key for me though is the #1 Rush Offense of Atlanta vs the 30th Ranked Rush Defense of TEN. Freeman can run all over them and open up the Pass for Ryan. Falcons offense is projected 74% in the Red Zone. So, I expect them to take a nice lead and run out the clock at the end to cover less than a TD ATL -6.  

Falcons are do not Qualify as a System Pick but are my 2nd and last Ban Bet of the Week. 
You make the call though with your cash.

BANK BET RECEIPT

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