NFL PICKS WEEK 7 RECAP

We made a lot of great calls this week, but only 2 picks to go 1-1 50%
Read our Week 7 Weekend Post (Below)  
I'm not hesitant to pull the trigger.  Parody is so bad that only 2 teams qualified. 
I am looking at more ways to capitalize on good calls without compromising the System.

The Good 
I studied the System Picks closely and called Off both.  Both Failed to cover.
So is the System slipping? (No - See Below) 

I went ahead and Bet an Non System Pick that Won big - SEA. 

The Bad
I gave back the SEA win betting on ATL.
System told me ATL could run all over the Titans - they chose not to in the Red Zone - Result 2 INTs and they did not cover. 

In Our Defense
Penalties called over 100 yds worth of Runs and they missed 2 FGs. But the System told me ahead that ATL would have trouble passing on TEN.  My bad - not the System. 


Refinement 
I will no longer count on a team to see strengths and weaknesses if they have failed to in the recent past. ATL had failed to do so in the past. (See 4. Intangibles below)

The Process
The Data process is faster than ever. I was not rushed this week to finish the Match Ups on time. This allowed me to study each game pretty closely.

The System
Each week I Tweak the system just a little as needed. Like slightly adjusting the fuel in a Formula 1 race car. There are a few main categories I use to determine a System Pick. Offensive Line was a Big factor until late last year. I have added that back as a factor in qualifying based on data.

Factors
There are 4 Main Factors in selecting a team to Bet

1. Head to Head Match Up
2. Spread Cover
3. Key Injuries
4. Intangibles (Recent Performance)

1 -3 are performing well.

1. Head to Head Match Up  (Performing Well)
Adding Offensive Line Match Up back.  
>The Ravens won Off Line match up big vs Cards and ARI did not cover. 

4. Intangibles
4 is the Tricky One. But Not so Much anymore. I take Gut out of it. I listen to my gut but then I look to substantiate any reasons to re inspect the System Pick or take a 2nd look at a Non Pick.  

This week I will be looking closely at Recent Performance - Not the Recent Stats but whether or Not the team will utilize the strength found in the Match up.

For Instance:
 

>ARI + 3 for 3 and Outs vs BAL. ARI did not capitalize on those 3 and outs vs BAL.
>ARI did the same vs PIT I spotted it ahead this time.

As you can see its just a matter of refining the games down and squeezing the juice out of each weeks match ups. We should find 3 or 4 a week. 


FINAL BANK STATEMENT WEEK 7