WEEK 4 THURSDAY NIGHT RECAP

Pick
PIT +3 Under (44)
Final 
BAL 23 PIT 20 Total (43)

PIT +3  (Push) 
Under (44) (Win)

Bet $34  Won $31  Paid $65
Up 90%
 
In case you're confused - which I was until recently - when 1 leg of a 2 team parlay ties or "pushes" - it becomes a 1 team bet and pays just like a single or straight bet - paying about 90% at -110. 

Bet formula for a single or straight bet is as follows - Bet Amount $34 x 1.9  = $64.60. That factor includes the amount you won. ( .9 ) or 90% $30.60  plus your original bet amount back ( 1 ) or 100% $34. If you're like me and hate math - you'll need a calculator and safety helmet to solve that equation at home.

The bank is now up for the week and the year going into the weekend!

RECAP

Wholly Snykes! 
That game got way too interesting in the end. We called the first half perfectly. Both teams defied the stats though. Great Rush Defenses vs weak Rush Offenses and yet they both ran well. Both teams have great punters - neither punted well - if they had - the Over would have been way out of reach. Early season stats can be misleading. The good news - as you know - most of the time those stats make us look like we have a crystal ball.

He is Who we Thought he was
I had totally forgotten that Todd Haley was the Offensive Coordinator for Steelers. 
You know it borders on insult when they say Tomlin managed Vick. He was the one with the ball that managing that offense pretty well - short passes, good runs, no big mistakes. Bell looks like he's on his way back. But Vick was not the one calling the plays - neither was Tomlin. Todd Haley was - he was run out of KC on a rail for losing and I see no improvement in Pittsburgh.
Steelers straight up gave this one away. Scobee missed 2 by inches - simple odds say he makes 1 of 3 from the 30 in OT and they win. Tomlin "My Bad". Not sure if that was his call or Haley's? Speaking of playing the Odds.....

No Ball No Blue Chips?
Not really - Long Term Winners Play the Odds and Hedge their Bets.

No Brains No Bank Account
PIT was projected to cover by 14  - why not take them Money Line? I almost posted the Steelers Money Line and backed off. Good thing - the bank is up rather than down.  Personally I did go moneyline - so don't fell bad if you did too. I'm following the system "and" the Bank from now on. I tend to be more careful with your money than my own. Not anymore. Playing the Odds from now on Baby! You'll notice I do not even post the moneyline odds anymore. If you ever do place a moneyline - the only smart way is a single bet with just one team moneyline. With parody rampant in the NFL - I'm not even doing that with the banks money.

Overs / Unders
I only used the Projected Score Total to bet the Under on tonights game. As you can see we skated by only 1 point under. There are 3 factors we normally use to determine the Over or Under. The score is just one. 

1. Projected Final Score Total 
2. Projected success of both Pass Offenses
3. Projected Red Zone TDs % of both Offenses

We got lucky using just one.  In the future any Overs or Unders will qualify for all 3.

On to Sunday
We have made some great calls - but we really have not been lucky so far this year. Steelers should have won tonight. So many games have come down to the last play and gone against us. However, we have a winning record and I feel strongly that the best is yet to come. We have averaged 70% vs the NFL Spread over the last 4 years. We do anything close to that this year and that bank will blow up! 

I  Love the Bills at Home. The rest of the games will be up by Saturday. 

Good Luck! 

- Rick Jansen