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No bad picks this week - just got burned. But - I spent way too much time posting charts that no one really cares about. Going black and white next week. Just Picks and Lines and Totals. That's what everyone wants anyway. More time to study the data myself and make good picks - filter the cream. Little pissed, but not down about any of this. Our Projected scores were super close on a lot of games. The system is working - Look at Atlanta and Arizona - absolute domination - as predicted - then fail to cover. I'm seeing more tells in the stats tho and will use them next week. Thank you Vikings - Go Pats! Hope Belichick doesn't burn me again. If they cover we are down like $50 for the year (be even if not for a parlay bet). If NE Covers we are at 52% on the year. Not the end of the world. If not - 50% is 5% above the average Pro that charges. Lotta season left. 2/3rds of the season still ahead of us .
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Here are the 4 new bets for the Weekend. The Atlanta loss counts and was recorded on the Bank Statement (below). The only Dicey pick is Vikings as they do not Qualify as a system pick or win the Offensive Matchups. That Pick based on 3 and Outs by KC without Charles and success by Vikings passing vs weak KC Pass Def.
LIVE UPDATES
MIN -3.5- We were right - KC no Offense without Charges - But stats also right about NO MIN Offense.Vikings 3-0.They Run all yr then pas in Red Zone? OK Now back to Peterson! 10-0, 2nd half - 13-0 KC Threatens inside 10 - Vikings Hold on 4th and 1 HUGE! Vikings offense letting them hang around - 13-10 not covering now? Missed pass for 1st but make FG MIN 16-10 just gotta hold them for 4 plays? Were we right can we stop them w/out Charles?
KC Kelce to the 50! FUMBLE VIKINGS BALL! can they run it out 4:35 4TH. long pass on 3rd - bonehead call- KC ball 2:17 4th on own 30? MIN Holds on 4th! Back Up RB Fumbles 16-10Vikings Win!
ARI -3.5 We were right- Haley's Offense is Horrible - BUT - Cards not taking advantage - Letting PIT hang around - Missed FG 7-3. .Palmer's missing open receivers - gives 7 away. ARI chokes in red zone again 10-3. Vick hurt Landry Jones in - TD to Bryant! PIT 12-10. Palmer still missing open receivers - now sacked. FG 18-13 PIT. Cards need to take the game back.. Palmer driving inside PIT 30 - Picked PIT Ball! Bryant takes a short slant the distance - his return makes huge difference for PIT. BUT hang this one n Palmer he lost it for Cards. ARI dominated and let them hang around - Fatal mistake. PIT 25-14
TEN -1 - Damn! Jonas Grey active for MIA - No way I touch this game knowing he's it in it. Dirty Hit - They just took out Marriotta's Knee! Kid's tough - didn't even miss a play - but Limping. BAM! there's our predicted Pass DEF by TEN - Big Pick!
Titan's stripped MIA Running all over them 17-3. Titans threaten - But Marcus immobile - taking sack. Pick 6 - MIA running away with it 24-. McCluster is the man! TD! 24-10 still have a chance. OK stats said Titans Pas Def could Dominate - Sack! McCluster return inside MIA 40!
TE Open over middle for TD diving Pick. MIA ball - now threatening to put it away. Go find the car its over MIA 38-10
NE -9
How many time have we seen this? > The spread is Patriots - about 10. The Patriots are covering. With under 5 minutes left in the game - Patriots do not get a first down or make any real effort to run out the clock on 2 separate possessions. Then they just happen to allow a late score to blow the cover. I'm sorry but I've watched this happen so many times I truly believe that Belichick may have a deal on the side with a bookie. Never giving more than 7 ever again with Patriots. I'm not crazy and know that is unlikely --but it is a much too common occurrence by a coach that doesn't do anything by accident. .
Once again this weekend a bizarre injury effects the outcome of a game. Edelman breaks his finger and costs us at least one TD (and the cover) . What a weekend!
Some Nice Dirt on This Weeks Picks from Reid:
"Like the picks . Bruce Arians would love to go into Pitt and win. Steelers fired him. I think patriots go for the throat on whisteblowing colts. They will pay in their own house for deflategate bullshit. Titans are better than their record. Pf 102 pa 91. Doubt they lose 3 in row at home. Good luck Rick"
I didn't think about any of that - Great Stuff man!
BANK BETS
Re: BANK BETS
Good Question in Our "Comment" Section (bottom of each blog post)
From Reid:
"Hi Rick, looks like Vikings are system pick with projected score 31-10 ? Did you write they are not a system pick this week? Please advise"
Answer:
Thanks for the ? Regarding Vikings. A System Pick means the Team
1. Dominated the Head to Head Match up
AND
2. Is projected to Covers the Line by 4 or more.
MIN did "NOT" win the Match Up by enough to be a System Pick (See Chart Above)
ON THE LEFT OFFENSE
X R - RUN -5 (LOST BY 5 RANKS)
X P - PASS 1 (WON BY ONLY 1 RANK) MIN PASS OFF 31ST - KC PASS DEF 32ND.
RZ - RED ZONE ( PROJECTED TO SCORE TDs INSIDE 20 67% OF TIME)- STRONG!
ON THE RIGHT DEFENSE VS KC
R - RED ZONE DEF ( ONLY PROJECTED TO ALLOW 47% TDs) STRONG!
P - PASS DEF ( -20 KC ) STRONG!
R - RUN (+11 KC) KC Wins that - This does "NOT" allow for Loss of RB Charles*
*The Loss of Jamal doesn't change the Rank Match Up - But is factored into the projected Score though, and Projected 3 and OUTs by KC. If a Back Up RB steps up - MIN R Rush Def is weak vs Run. This could Kill the whole premise of the BET.- open up pass for Smith (KC Points) and eliminate 3 and OUts by KC which account for some of Vikings projected points and cover. The good news is - MIN dominates on Pass DEF and both side of the Red Zone vs KC so we should be OK.
If a Team has the Word (BET) next to it - it is a "Bank" Bet and counts towards our "Record" and the "Virtual Bank" whether it is a System Pick or Not. In some cases a team may NOT dominate match up - but if projected to cover spread by a large enough margin - may become a BANK (BET). In the case of the Vikings - They did "NOT" dominate Match UP enough - BUT - Are Projected to Cover BIG 31-10.
I mentioned it is a "Dicey" pick - statistically - only because I would not normally give points on a team that does not dominate R- Running or P- Passing on Offense. I've always thought though that Jamal Charles "is" KC and if he ever gets hurt - KC is dead in the water. We'll find out Sunday if that is true.
BANK STATEMENT
(Click - View Image - Magnify to Enlarge)
BUF
I love E.J.Manuel and the Bills to Rock Bengals this week - But BUF not did qualify as a pick and Tyrod Taylor is out. Scoring projections favor CIN (very weak schedule so far though).
BAL
Ravens were the first team to ever win every single category in a Match Up - but -Huge injuries - including Smith, Forsett and Dumervill made me call off.
JAC vs HOU
Should be a fun game - got it 31-31. Jaguars win the Run, Pass and Red Zone match up. But - Foster and Shorts back for Hoyer. Should be a good game for 2 bad teams.
15 comments:
Vikings pick looks solid . KC lost to the bears. How are they going to win in Minn?
Thnx, Hope you're right - I think so. Strange one because MIN does not win Off Line, Rush Off or Pass Off - but dominates in Pass Def. Hoping lack of Run game stalls KC into 3 and outs giving Teddy lots of Mulligans. I like Vikings - but only vs the right team in the right situation - hoping this is it @Home.
Best qualified Picks this week ARI AND NE with TEN close behind them
Like the picks . Bruce Arians would love to go into Pitt and win. Steelers fired him. I think patriots go for the throat on whisteblowing colts. They will pay in their own house for deflategate bullshit. Titans are better than their record. Pf 102 pa 91. Doubt they lose 3 in row at home. Good luck Rick
Hi Rick, looks like Vikings are system pick with projected score 31-10 ? Did you write they are not a system pick this week? Please advise
Re: Vikings - I posted your Question and My Answer on the Blog. Great stuff on the games - forgot all about Deflate Gate being vs Colts. That's Huge! And didn't know Arians was with PIT. Great stuff Man! I saw what Titans were capable of vs my Bills and was impressed. They did Win Match Up and projected to Cover Legit. So agree on that too.
Dissappointing week. picks looked good when they came out. Maybe you will catch fire when you have more data. Try again next week. Thanks
The Data is already spot on. Just can't predict human error. ATL and ARI dominated just like the system said - then let them hang around and win. There's 2 losses. There were Tells on both those games that I have in pocket for next week. You and I were right on MIN. Hopefully NE too. It's usually not this hard - but the key is patience. Not getting down or giving up. I Won't do either. Have a great rest of the day - Looking forward to watching Brady later.
But yeah, I agree. The stats produced bets that made sense to both us us. Thought we'd go 100% this week. Problem is NFL doesn't make sense half the time. My job is too bet the half that does. We will. But Feel your pain man. Hang in there. On to week 7!
Kicking myself for not laying off titans game. New head coach motivated dolphins big time. Coaching change is the X factor you can not predict. They looked like a different team. Talk to you next week
Yeah - but we both watched them almost take down a pretty talented BUF team - It felt odd betting on an under 500 - but stats were legit - made sense with them at home - the MIA Defense has been horrible all yr then they decide to play this week on the road? Then Jonas Grey is suddenly in their backfield, Then Marriota gets crippled. best 2nd half scoring team in the league - almost came back - but not with a QB that can barely walk. Shit happens no one can predict. - don't beat yourself up. see you next week.
Hi Rick,
Tough luck this week. Plenty of time left to get on a roll and in the black. At least 10 weeks left to the season and your track record shows you always come out ahead. I like your idea of condensing the charts. You're a capper on a completely different level than the average Joe. The charts can be intimidating to read for some of us. I know you're due to have some 4-0 weeks like you did last year.Let's bounce back next Sun
Thnx for the positive input. True (11 games left) we are only 35% into the season. And yes good advice - spent 20 hours on capping last week - half of that was posting prep etc. No need. Lines and picks are all most people want anyway.
By buddy is plugged into sports radio 24/7. He said books are making a killing this yr and that 50% is great and will probably mean a good rest of the season going forward.
I never want to get complacent and start thinking 50% or even 60% is good enough. If that's as good as we can do - not worth the time. But like you said we have proven we can do yr after yr and just need to show the public this yr. going 60% or better this yr would put us at the top and allow me to go pro hire people etc. So worth doing.
There will not be several freak injuries ( TEN, NE) or blown blow outs (ATL,ARI) every week. Just gotta survive the bad weeks to get to the good - we are doing that. Virtual Bank still very healthy.
Tried to reply last night - Power supply died - adding insult to injury - yup one of those weeks.
Thanks again for the support and good luck!
Dogs ruled this week going 10-3 ATS ? We bet 5 favorites! Go figure
Wow, and its been swinging back and forth that way each week. Lotta Favs are in my Doghouse. LOL. ATL, ARI and NE should have covered easy.
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