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Updates:
BAL 23 PIT 20 (WIN)
Pushed on Line Won on the Under (44)
NYG 24 BUF 10 (Loss)
Bills 17 Penalties for 135 yds. Still had a chance after all that with 2 minutes left - but a penalty killed the drive. So much talent - so little discipline, Who were those guys? In case you were wondering - Rex and the Jets had very few penalties last year (Avg 33yds per game).
GB 17 SF 3 (WIN)
Never even close
STL 24 ARI 22 (Loss)
Cards recover 2 fumbles inside Rams 20 - both calls blown by Refs - They get nothin. Threaten later but choke again in Red Zone - FG. Rams score! Garrett breaks free for TD - stops short and downs it. Rams Win!
DEN 23 MIN 20 (WIN)
Vikings go for it on 4th Down. Peterson breaks free for 50 yds TD!
Vikings Pick Manning - Driving inside DEN 40!FG They Tie it Up!
DEN FG - Looks like MIN will cover the 6.5. Could still win?
Good effort by Vikings - Teddy Striped - ends drive. Vikings Cover!
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THIS WEEKS PICKS
UPDATED (10-3-15)
PIT +3 UNDER 44
Pushed on Pick, Won Total Up 90%
@BUF - 5.5 vs NYG
No Change - Love the Bills @ Home. Cruz Out NYG.
2 Additions!
Why have a System if we Don't Use It?
It is not easy for a team to qualify as a system pick. They really have to dominate the Match Up and Cover the Spread. There are times - due to injury - that I will call the system off. It is early in the year and there will be surprises the system cant see - it is not perfect. There are some good reasons to be cautious on the GB and ARI games - But - I'm not going to over-think it - going with all the system picks this week. It has a better record than I do,
GB - 7.5 @SF
This quote changed my mind;
When asked for thoughts about Aaron Rodgers' five-touchdown game, Kaepernick said, "I haven't watched Green Bay's offensive side."
He will see Rodgers on offense Sunday. This kid is so cocky he never even took the time to learn how to throw a football. If Kaepernick knew his limitations and was committed to just running - they could cover vs a very weak GB Rush Defense. But I don't think he will - If you do - stay off GB. Look for Clay Mathews to hand this kid his ass. The final deciding factor for me is that SF has the 24th Ranked Pass defense facing Rodgers this week. Run or Not - they should not keep up with GB Pass Game scoring. Going with the system - Packers Roll.
@ARI -7 vs STL
Sorry - I'm a closet Foles fan.
But they have failed to score. ARI has had the weakest schedule in the league - BUT - Their Defense has been great for years. This may not be the week to root for the Rams as they face a Hyped up undefeated ARI team at Home Going with the System.
Cards Roll
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The system picked 3 teams this week. I pulled off 2 for the reasons listed below in yellow.
I was excited about betting more teams as usual - but upon further review - I found some Red Flags that were real concerns. I may be walking away from easy money on the Cards and Packers game. You may want to go ahead and bet them. I'm just protecting the Bank and the Record - I hope? I'd rather miss out on a little money than lose it.
OTHER GAMES
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WEEK 3 REPORT CARD
3 Weeks. That's not much when you think about it. There are half a dozen teams that seem like the real deal. Let's take a closer look::
1 NE 3-0 (Bye)
The Real Deal as far as Quick Release Pass Game (which all teams should adopt). But - Weak Red Zone and Rush Defense - if anyone ever Runs on them and Keeps Brady off the field?
2 GB 3-0
Rodgers is amazing. But the Packers share the same weaknesses as Patriots. Weak Red Zone and Rush Defense. That could actually come into play this week vs the #1 Rush Offense of SF playing them at Home.
3 BUF 2-1
Has it all - Great Run and Pass game and Defense. The weakness there is pass Defense. I believe that stat was skewed by playing the Patriots and are much better than 26th at defending the pass. Hoping they prove me right vs NYG this week.
4 ARI 3-0
No Apparent Weakness. But they have played he weakest schedule of all 32 teams so far. Palmer is a great veteran QB - but older and slower. The #1 Off Line in the league is doing a decent job of protecting him - But - he is taking an avg of 2 sacks per game.
5 ATL 3-0
Last year they could not stop the Run. Looked like they fixed that until DAL Ran all over them last week. Good Pass game - But - Rush and pass Defense suspect? Their Rush Defense may be tested by the return of Arian Foster this week?
6 DEN 3-0
In my opinion this is the most Overrated team in the NFL. Great defense - but they have played no one and manning is in decline. Kubiak is a horrible coach. I am amazed they are 3-0. Only epidemic parody providing weak opponents can save Peyton. If they get past MIN they have OAK and CLE next. The Emperors news clothes may be may still be looking good (6-0) until week 8 vs GB.
7 MIN 2-1
I want Teddy to win every week. Not sure the Team is complete enough to do so consistently.
Weak Def Line and Rush Defense and oddly enough Pass Offense. Bridgewater can throw and has great targets like Mike Wallace and Cordell Paterson. I do not think a one denominational offense - centering around Adrian Peterson is the answer. This weeks game vs Denver will tell us a lot about both teams. If they can get the Pass Offense going - The defense gets a much needed rest and those stats could improve.
8 DAL 2-1
They have a strong "Team". Cassell could be a much needed game manager for the Cowboys. "IF" they ever play him. Weedon (Not the Answer) is starting again this week. Romo was an Achilles heel in my opinion. We won't know if they will get it together until Bryant is back (Out this week) . Randle looked good last week - BUT - not sure if the ATL Rush Defense is horrible again this year?
Some of the Undefeated Teams are on our No Bet List from Last Year.
9 CAR 3-0
Great Defense but you cant count on Rivera or Newton.
Also, the offenses they have faced avg 27th.
10 CIN 3-0
They always have great stats early in the year - until you bet them and Dalton screws you.
They have played only Weak Defenses so far and have a Weak Red Zone Defense.
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