Week 1 2-1
Week 2 6-4
Week 3 7-1
3 Winning Parlays
ALL SQUARE
I''m not excited about 10-10 50% so far this season - but not disappointed or discouraged either. The average Pro that charges averages 45%. We've made money 2 of the 4 weeks, hit a 3 team parlay, and our $1000 bank is only down $44. I wont settle for that though. I demand 60% or better of myself in order to expand this next year.
Were good though. We're like a boxer feeling out the opponent in the first round - as more stats pour in each week - increasing our advantage. We've kept them out of the end zone and are down by a FG near the end of the first quarter. Lotta season left. We're about to land some punches and score.
Week 4 Results
What We Learned this Week
Lesson 1 - Pick of the Week?
One thing I was reminded of this week - do not put it all on one "Sure Thing" game.
I would have bet the farm on the Bills this week. I almost increased the bet amount on just that game. Then I remembered - don't put all your eggs in one basket. Not even sure what team showed up and lost to the hapless Giants - but glad I bet all the system picks to even out our week. And yes, I'm still a Bills fan (starting this yr). That rude awakening Sunday will either send them to the Cellar or the Playoffs. I predict the later.
Lesson 2 - Schedule Strength
Too early in the year to count on it - but it is real - Look at ARI (32nd in Schedule Strength) Favored by 7 - lost to the Rams at Home in Arizona. That was the only stat against them in that game. Not enough to kill a system pick - but worth keeping an eye on.
Lesson 3 - Feed the System
There are games I look at and just stay away from. I am going to put them all through the system starting this week. Minus games played overseas or games in which major injuries can not be accessed prior to the game.
Lesson 4 - Be Patient and Trust the System.
We've averaged 70% vs the NFL spread for 4 years because of the System we have used for 4 plus years. I'm going to let it take its losses - rather than 2nd guessing it, and we will come out ahead in the end, like every other year. At 50% this year - we've made money half the time - imagine what the bank will look like once we start hitting! "On to Week 5!
10 comments:
Hi Rick, nice pick on the lions Mon. A pro handicapper sent me a text guaranteeing Seattle won win and cover! When you turn pro count on me as a customer. You're a good capper and honest. I think this week you will go above .500
Regards, Reid
Thanks Braduh I really appreciate the support. Only regret on that game was that the Under was screaming at me - yet the totals projected over 43. I crunched that total for an hour cause Under seemed like the play in spite of the numbers. I had $40 on DET w/ OVR. Wish I knew last 20 drives @SEA resulted 18 Punts. With Lynch Out - taking 7 from SEA was not Enuf. But yeah - DET covered thnx.
Calling both sides of any game is insane - But these Thursday nighters are tempting?. Makes it worth watching 40 to win $140. I do like the fact that its jut one game and if we lose we have the choice to just start over w/ a new Parlay and single bets for the weekend. If we win we hit our parlay and are ahead. Last week we made money - Push PIT Won Under. A lot depends on the Match Up and the how the system calls the game too or I stay off.
Just looked at the Thu line hoping to see HOU +8 or something - Colts Getting No Love -1.5 But 45 could be an UND? I Cap and Post it by Tomorrow Noon.
What are your thoughts on including Thursdays as a separate 2 team parlay calling the Line and OVR or UND?
I met a guy who worked for a place that sold picks. He said one Room would be calling and selling Dallas the other would be selling picks for the Redskins when they played each other. This way they never got sided - always stayed 50% that way. Hard to believe. When I told him we avg'd 70% for 4 yrs he looked at me like I was from another planet. LOL.
Were due - cant wait to hit a great week and get that bank overflowing. Good Luck this week!
I think you should consider adding a 2 or 3 team teaser to your picks once in a while. Like you said payoff is not as high but our win % goes up. 3 team 7pts pays 140 for100 ?
I meant to tell you - my buddies at the club hit a 4 team teasers last week - paid 4 -1 . I agree. It's just too hard to post the different teaser card odds from every book. But - I'll continue the 2 teamers and post caps for all games - so followers and can put those together based on projected scores and matchup info. If we like DET to cover 9 they can tease to 12 etc. I will look into posting actual teasers parlays too when I have time. Thanks for the reply!
Hi Rick, do you have a take on tonight's game? Horrible game. I'm not impressed with Bill O'Brien after watching hard knocks. All he's good at is dropping the f-bomb all day. These coaches that leave the patriots don't do well on their own. How does Sunday look so far?
Just posted tonight Match up. Disappointed it does not provide more opportunity. Haven't capped other games yet (Fri or Sat) - but all over BUF giving less than 3 at TEN. They will be looking to redeem themselves - think they will - I'd grab that line early before the public takes it to 3.
INJURY ALERT!!!! WAITING ON BUF - HUGE INJURIES PENDING!
Bills burned me bad last week. I hope you hit them Sunday but I will pass. Looking forward to your other picks. Thanks
I think the battle for New York got to them - but expect them to come back with a Vengeance. They may be without most of their offensive stars and back ups this week tho. Waiting injury reports.
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